Now that the Pac-10 season has arrived at its half-way point, I thought it might be time to take stock. Though it might be hard for some on the other side of the country to believe what they've been reading lately, this is one time you can believe the hype. The Pac-10 is the best conference in basketball.
Okay, before you start worrying about locusts descending my the millions and rivers running red, relax. The world is not coming to an end, only the conventional wisdom that tells you that the nation's best basketball is played along the Atlantic coast or in the nation's heartland. The defending champs (Florida) still look pretty good and Roy Williams has his Tar Heels poised for another deep tournament run, but there is no conference better from top to bottom than the Pac-10.
If you throw out bottom-feeders Oregon State and Arizona State, you could make a credible argument for each of the other eight teams in the league to make the NCAA tournament. (This will never happen, but you can be certain that any of those eight that don't go dancing will at least get the NIT consolation prize.)
UCLA is nails. When Ben Howland came home to guide the Bruins (18-2, RPI #1) a few years back, this is exactly what we saw coming. The talent is arguably the same, but now that there's some actual coaching going on in Westwood -- perhaps for the first time since John Wooden gave up the reins -- the Bruins will likely be one of the top teams in the country for years to come. Few teams are as aggressive on the defensive end as this group, and that intensity will serve them well in March -- and April. It'll be a shock if they don't win the conference, grab a #1 tourney seed, and cruise to the Final Four. As for the future, this year's one weakness -- size -- should be addressed nicely when Howland welcomes the nation's top recruit next year, 6'9" center Kevin Love.
A notch below UCLA is Oregon (19-2, RPI #14), led by Player of the Year candidate Aaron Brooks. It wouldn't be too much of a surprize to see Oregon make a deep March run.
Arizona (14-6, RPI #6), still smarting from the home court ass-beating they took last weekend from North Carolina, can take solace in their lofty RPI and superior athleticism.
Washington State -- yes, Washington State -- has enjoyed a great season highlighted by wins over Gonzaga and Arizona. With the three-point shooting of Derek Low, the Cougs (17-4, RPI #33) will be dangerous come tournament time.
If there's been one disappointment in the conference, it must be the Washington Huskies (13-7, RPI #72). Picked by most to challenge UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona for the league title, the Huskies jumped out to a gaudy 10-1 record thanks to a schedule full of Twinkies like Nicholls State, Northern Iowa, and Eastern Washington. UW still hasn't won a game away from home, and if I were Mike Montgomery, I'd be asking my old buddy Tyrone about Seattle-area housing.
So if we assume that UCLA, Arizona, Washington State, and Oregon are all locks for the tournament, the fifth guaranteed bid will certainly go to the Stanford Cardinal. The Mighty Card (14-5, RPI #30) shook off a troublingly inconsistent start (losses to Air Force, Santa Clara, and Cal) to grab a 6-3 conference mark, good enough for a tie for third place. Stanford solidified its postseason case when they came back to stun UCLA, 75-68, on national television last Sunday night, and they'll have a chance to push for a higher seed when they take on Gonzaga tonight.
The good news for Stanford is that they are incredibly young. They start two freshmen and two sophomores, and only one senior logs significant minutes. All of this youth certainly contributed to the Card's shaky start, but the future looks incredibly bright.
Seven foot freshmen Brook and Robin López have been exactly as advertised. For a year now we've been hearing that they were further along than the Collins twins were when they arrived in Palo Alto, and they haven't disappointed. Both players are strong fundamentally, which is surprizing for big players who likely didn't have to play the right way to be successful in high school. They easily carve out position on the blocks and are aggressive offensive rebounders. Brook has already developed a quick jump hook that looks good from as deep as twelve or fifteen feet, and both brothers are comfortable shooting long jumpers from the top of the key. They play well together, either from a high-low or double post set. As a bonus, they are both terribly imposing on the defensive end, swatting shots like flies. Brook recently blocked twelve USC shots on the way to recording the first triple-double in Stanford history.
The team's leading scorer, though, is sophomore small forward Lawrence Hill. The López presence allows Hill to spend most of his time on the perimeter (he's already knocked down 24 three pointers), but his size (6'8") gives him a huge mismatch when he wants to bring his smaller defender into the post.
Sophomore guard Anthony Goods runs hot and cold, but when he's been hot he has carried the team to wins over Washington and Washington State. The team's glaring weakness, though, is at the point guard position, and this impacts Goods. Sophomore Mitch Johnson had the job as the year started, based on his performance last season as Chris Hernández's back-up. Based on his ball control and decision-making last year, it looked like Johnson would develop into a solid point guard, but that hasn't worked out.
The problem with Mitch is that he just can't score, so no one has to guard him. He shoots his jump shot standing sideways, like a man trying to slide past a turnstile without turning it. It is predictably inconsistent. When someone does choose to guard him, Johnson seems to surprized that he immediately passes the ball into the stands or dribbles it off his foot. This inconsistency is born out in his conference stats: he had fifteen assists and fifteen turnovers before righting the ship this past weekend against the L.A. schools.
Johnson's struggles have forced him to the bench, moving Goods to the point guard. I expect the Cardinal to continue to improve over the next few weeks as their younger players gain confidence and experience, but when they lose their final game, I guarantee it will be because of guard play.
If Johnson can get better -- and I think there's a chance that he could -- Stanford just might be able to join the upper ranks of the conference over the next few years along with UCLA and Arizona. Here's hoping...
Nice analysis ... I agree with your take on all points except that Monty should go house hunting in Seattle. Romar's past seasons have given him enough in the bank with fans and the UW AD to cushion the impact of one bad season.
Posted by: Leftcoast | February 02, 2007 at 10:04 PM